The effect of chilling on the occurrence of Salmonella on pig carcasses was investigated at study, abattoir and
batch level by meta-analysis. Both the fixed-effects and random-effects model confirmed (p b 0.05) the significant
effect of chilling in decreasing Salmonella occurrence on pig carcasses; although the random-effects solution
was preferred to account for the significant variability in effect size (p b 0.001) estimated from the 13 primary
studies considered, the 32 abattoirs surveyed, and the 51 sampled batches. Conservatively, it can be said that
chilling reduces the Salmonella incidence on pig carcasses by a mean ratio of ~1.6 (95% CI: 1.0–2.6). Multilevel
meta-analysismodels investigating study characteristics that could explain the heterogeneity (τ2) in the true effect
size among primary studies (τ2 = 0.578), among surveyed abattoirs (τ2 = 0.431), and among sampled batches
(τ2 = 0.373), revealed that study size (represented by the moderating variables of ‘total sample size’ and ‘number
of batches sampled in an abattoir’) and ‘carcass swabbed area’ have a significant impact (p b 0.05) on the measured
effect size of chilling. The fact that swabbed area explained between 56 and 62% and total sample size between 23
and 38% of the total heterogeneity in the chilling true effect size, indicates that differences in experimental design
greatly affect our substantive conclusion about the effect of chilling on Salmonella occurrence. This inconsistency
to elucidate the effect of chilling arises because of themany factors influencing both the performance of the chilling
operation and themeasurement itself.Meta-analysis was not only instrumental to showthat small-size studies (i.e.,
only one batch sampled per abattoir, total number of sampled carcasses per batch b 50) and small swabbed areas
(b100 cm2) lead to imprecise and even conflicting conclusions, but most importantly, enabled definition of the
characteristics of a well-designed study having aminimumstatistical power to produce precise results. A sound experimental
design derived by multilevel meta-analysis consists of swabbing carcass areas of at least 500 cm2 from
25 pre-chill and 25 post-chill carcasses from a single production batch, with a minimum of two batches sampled
per surveyed abattoir. If the survey were to be conducted in more than one abattoir, the total sample size should
not be less than 400. Two methods to test for publication bias, a common problem in meta-analysis, suggested
that whilst the presence of unpublished small-size studies is probable, it is not likely that this would significantly
bias the overall chilling effect estimated in this study.
