The authors wish to thank the financial support of FEDER through the COMPETE Program
and the national funds from FCT—Science and Technology Portuguese Foundation for financing the
DOUROZONE project (PTDC/AAG-MAA/3335/2014; POCI-01-0145-FEDER-016778). Thanks is
also due for the financial support to the PhD grant of A. Ascenso (SFRH/BD/136875/2018). Thanks
is due to FCT/MCTES for the financial support to CESAM (UIDP/50017/2020+UIDB/50017/2020),
through national funds
Tropospheric ozone (O3) levels in southern Europe have an increasing tendency, in close
relation with the higher incidence of hot summers and heatwaves. Given that O3 is one of the most
damaging pollutants for vegetation, known to affect productivity and quality of crops, it is necessary
to develop more rigorous and consistent methods of risk assessment that consider climate change
conditions. Studying the O3 deposition over the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR), which is one of
the most productive wine areas in Portugal, and assessing its potential effects under a climate change
scenario, was the purpose of this study. To that end, the chemical transport model CHIMERE, with
a spatial resolution of 1 km2, fed by meteorological data from the WRF model, was applied for a
recent past climate (2003 to 2005) and future mid-term (2049 and 2064) and long-term (2096 and 2097)
scenarios. Simulations for future climate were performed considering: (i) only the climate change
effect, and (ii) the effect of climate change together with future air pollutant emissions. The assessment
of the potential damage in terms of wine productivity and quality (sugar content) was performed
through analysis of O3 deposition and the application of concentration–response functions, based on
AOT40 values. Modeling results show that a reduction in emission of O3 precursors can successfully
decrease AOT40 levels in the DDR, but it is not enough to accomplish the European Commission
target value for the protection of vegetation. If the emissions remain constant, the exposure–response
functions indicate that, in the long-term, AOT40 levels could worsen wine productivity and quality.
