Climate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the wine-growing regions of
the world, in particular the Douro region, are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average
growing season temperatures limited to 13–21◦C. This study focuses on the incidence of climate variables and
indices that are relevant both for climate change detection and for grape production with particular emphasis
on extreme events (e.g. cold waves, storms, heat waves). Dynamical downscaling ofMPI-ESM-LR global data
forced with RCP8.5 climatic scenario is performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to
a regional scale including the Douro valley of Portugal for recent-past (1986–2005) and future periods (2046–
2065; 2081–2100). The number, duration and intensity of events are superimposed over critical phenological
phases of the vine (dormancy, bud burst, flowering, v´eraison, and maturity) in order to assess their positive
or negative implications on wine production in the region. An assessment on the statistical significance of
climatic indices, their differences between the recent-past and the future scenarios and the potential impact
on wine production is performed. Preliminary results indicate increased climatic stress on the Douro region
wine production and increased vulnerability of its vine varieties. These results will provide evidence for future
strategies aimed to preserve the high-quality wines in the region and their typicality in a sustainable way.
The authors wish to thank the financial support of the DOUROZONE project (PTDC/AAG-MAA/3335/2014; POCI- 01-0145-FEDER-016778) through the Project 3599 – Promoting the scientific production and the technological development, and thematic networks (3599-PPCDT) and through FEDER.
