Predicting olive phenology in Portugal in a warming climate
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Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) under Project Futurolive (PTDC/AGR-AAM/:1.04562/2008).
Prediction of flowering of olive trees should account for
chilling requirements, using an appropriate chilling unit
for the accounting of chilling accumulation. After chilling
requirements are satisfied, dormancy break takes place.
Thereafter, the trees enter the forcing phase, in which
the thermal time approach is used, but an appropriate
base temperature must be determined. Such a model was
developed, calibrated and validated for many olive cultivars
(De Melo-Abreu et al., 2004).
After flowering, the occurrence of developmental stages
may be predicted using a thermal time approach, but
for warm regions a saw-tooth model, which is a model
that reduces the effect of supra-optimal temperatures, is
mandatory (Garcia-Huidobro et al., :1.982).
According to the simulations of the model HadCM3,
developed by the Hadley Centre, global climate warming
will result in average temperature anomalies in winter, in
Continental Portugal, of about 2°C, in SRES scenarios 81
and 82, 3°C in scenario A2, and 4 °C in scenario A:tFI, by the
end of XXI century. (Miranda et al., 2006).
In this study, we discuss the prediction of flowering and
subsequent phenological stages and calculate and map
the times of occurrence of flowering under three warming
scenarios. No flowering or abnormal flowering events are
also predicted.
